The Unlikely Index Every Oil Trader Should Be Watching in 2026
Jakarta, Pintu News – January 3, 2026 marked the possible start of a new era of resource wars, when the United States Armed Forces launched a daring attack on one of the countries with the world’s largest oil reserves.
Commodity Market Turmoil
The attack immediately triggered turmoil in the commodities market as many feared a major disruption in oil supply. However, prices soon stabilized after there were no further signs of escalation, coupled with President Donald Trump’s statement calming investors and oil entrepreneurs.
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What’s perhaps most interesting about this event is that observant traders actually got an early warning through an unusual indicator: The Pentagon Pizza Index.
In a post on the X platform on January 3, the Pentagon Pizza Report account reported a sudden surge in the number of orders from Pizzato Pizza, a nighttime restaurant located close to the Pentagon.
How Traders Use Unconventional Indicators to Monitor Geopolitical Risks
Public data from pizzerias in the vicinity of the Pentagon showed a sudden spike in activity shortly before the attack on Caracas, Venezuela. At the same time, a related but separate indicator – bar crowds near US military bases – showed a sharp decline.
Interestingly, the Soviet Union may have been the first to utilize this ‘Pizza Index’. Their intelligence service reportedly monitored pizza deliveries to the Pentagon to detect if any major military operations were being planned.
As the availability and price of oil is closely linked to political dynamics and military actions in the region of producing countries, this unique indicator is likely to grow in importance throughout 2026.
The Trump administration managed to capture President Nicolas Maduro in the January 3 raid. However, the turmoil in the region is unlikely to subside.
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President Donald Trump implied that the United States would manage Venezuela for an undetermined amount of time. However, in reality, the Vice President of Venezuela took over the government with the apparent support of the military.
Why the Pizza Index will Stay Relevant Throughout 2026
Although the situation in South America may seem calm for the time being, tensions are still likely to rise, especially after threatening statements from the American side against Colombia, Brazil and Cuba. Outside of these regions, several other oil-producing regions also remain in a state of instability.
Today, Iran is a prime candidate for military action by the United States while potentially destabilizing the global oil market. The country is not only a major oil producer, but also has the ability to disrupt oil shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping lane.
The Pizza Index could again be the final signal for observant traders, especially after President Trump stated that his administration is closely monitoring the wave of protests in the Islamic Republic, and signaled that military options are being considered.
Another region to watch out for is the Gulf of Aden. Growing tensions between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen have the potential to escalate. Given the region’s importance in global geopolitics, it is unlikely that the United States will not intervene in any escalation or de-escalation that occurs there.
While the Pizza Index and Bar Index have a long history and surprising usefulness, investors are still advised to use them only as additional aids in analysis, not as leading indicators.
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Reference:
- FinBold. Oil traders must watch this index in 2026. Accessed on January 6, 2026